Is the Anecdote the Antidote?

(Making Informed Health Decisions)

Humans make life-sustaining decisions based on whatever information is available to them at the time. Sometimes our information is anecdotal. Jill jumped out of an airplane without a parachute. In light of her tragic end perhaps the rest of us should don a chute before we launch ourselves into eternity. Seems logical.

          Joe was diagnosed with cancer a few months ago. Then someone gave him a piece of Bazooka Bubble Gum. As he chewed it, Joe was warmed by memories of his childhood. He felt a little better. Soon he was at the store buying more Bazooka Bubble Gum. He even relearned how to blow bubbles. His grandkids were amazed at his bubble-blowing prowess. Joe was comforted by the sweet sticky taste of his Bazooka Bubble Gum. There was still pleasure in his life.

          After a few months of regular chewing and bubble-blowing, Joe returned to his Oncologist for a check-up. Good news! His cancer was in remission. What a blessing, perhaps even a miracle. Joyful, Joe thought about all the changes he had made in his life since his original diagnosis. None of these seemed to have worked until he re-kindled his love for Bazooka Bubble Gum. Could that be the secret of his cure, he wondered?

          Joe happened to mention his healing to fellow cancer patient, Tom. With nothing to lose, Tom began chewing Bazooka Bubble Gum. Amazingly, his next trip to the doctor revealed that his tumor had stopped growing and might even have shrunk a millimeter or two. Then their mutual friend Sally died of lung cancer. Both knew that Sally disliked Bazooka Bubble Gum and never chewed it. The facts were adding up. Soon they would be hard to deny. Sam and Kathy started on Bazooka Bubble Gum therapy for their cancers. Though it was too early to tell for sure, they seemed to be getting better.

          Joe, Tom and Sally’s daughter, Liz started sharing their experiences on social media. The local paper picked up the story. Soon more people were experimenting with Bazooka Bubble Gum as a cure for various forms of cancer. Interest picked up even more when, Dr Foz, a licensed Anesthesiologist, began suggesting the treatment on his Healthy Life Vitamin Supplement website. Soon the story was picked up by a major cable news political analyst. He asked, “With all this compelling evidence, shouldn’t we be looking at Bazooka Bubble Gum as cancer’s silver bullet cure?” Twitter lit up like a wildfire. Soon store shelves were emptied of Bazooka Bubble Gum. Frantic patients turned to alternatives like Double Bubble Bubble Gum in hopes that it might contain similar ingredients. Sadly, those who tried Double Bubble Bubble gum failed to achieve the same results as those who had used the real thing, Bazooka Bubble Gum. Stores began to limit customers to one pack of Bazooka Bubble Gum at a time, while the manufacturer ramped up production.

          Things really came to a head when Zeke Tregaskis, a cancer patient from Ottumwa sued his doctor for not prescribing Bazooka Bubble Gum as part of his treatment. The callous physician maintained that there was no scientific evidence that Bazooka Bubble Gum cured any form of cancer. He at least acknowledged in court, however, that there were no known adverse effects from the tasty treat other than an increased possibility of dental cavities. Tragically, Zeke died before his court case could be resolved. Several cable news pundits were outraged at this denial of a vital, life-saving treatment.

          OK, this is satire. Unfortunately, it is all too similar to some of the things we have seen as the Coronavirus raged through our population. At first, we had little scientific information to go on. We got confusing information on the virus and how to protect ourselves. Many viewed infectious disease precautions as too burdensome and harmful to their livelihoods. Others heard of anecdotal cures. A small study claimed limited success with Hydroxychloroquine, a malaria drug. A man in Phoenix died after drinking an aquarium cleaning fluid whose label said it contained the chemical. Cable news pundits brought guests on their shows promoting the drug. People took Hydroxychloroquine both as a preventative and a cure. They literally sued doctors and hospitals to get it. The results of the initial Hydroxychloroquine study could not be replicated by more rigorous scientific trials. The drug was useless and might have some bad side effects. People still took it and are taking it to this day.

We’ve now seen numerous peaks and valleys of virus infections. Each time we thought we were done with the virus, it reminded us that it was not done with us.  New variants emerged along with new ways to treat the infection. Finally, there was a promising vaccine. Science had at last triumphed. Statistics told us that the vaccine was highly effective. There would be fewer cases and far less hospitalizations and deaths.

          At this point, all should have gone well. It didn’t. Why?

We just began the third year of the pandemic and though receding, it is still a major public health problem. People are resisting the vaccines, still taking Hydroxychloroquine and turning to other unproven drugs like the horse de-wormer Ivermectin. Young people, in particular, feel like the disease is not their problem. They can catch it and usually suffer little or no consequences. Unfortunately, everyone who catches COVID is a vector for transmission to other, more vulnerable populations. At least now older and immunocompromised people are able to do a pretty good job of protecting themselves with vaccines and avoiding the unvaccinated.

The current variant, Omicron, is proving itself to be more contagious, but less lethal, than earlier variants. Let us hope that the next variant will be even less malign. There are no guarantees.

          Besides quack cures like Hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin, I am particularly concerned with vaccine resistance. People cite a variety of reasons for not getting the vaccine. Often their excuses are based on anecdotal evidence rather than rigid scientific analysis of statistics. The Bazooka Bubble Gum cure for Joe’s cancer is an example of anecdotal evidence.

Some people are afraid to get the vaccine because it is too new or that it could be harmful to them. To date, over 500 million shots have been administered in the United States. There have been about 5 adverse reactions per million after receiving the shot. Some people have died after receiving their COVID shot. (In a good year 3 million people die, some after eating ice cream.) Only 9 of these deaths have been casually linked to the vaccine. All of the 9 victims received the Johnson and Johnson vaccine which is no longer being recommended.[i] From the anecdotal stories I hear, each of those 9 people must have had 10 million friends and relatives. The 100 million or so people who refuse to get vaccinated all seem to know someone who was killed by the vaccine.

I get that some might fear a new vaccine, but the alternative could be much worse. As a child, I lived through the Polio epidemic of the 1950’s. My wife caught Polio and is paralyzed in her right arm. Though the Polio vaccine was a godsend, one of the original 6 manufacturers allowed the vaccine to be contaminated with live Polio virus. The massive effort to vaccinate America’s children had to be paused while the problem was identified and fixed. The rigid controls on vaccines that were imposed after this debacle have kept all vaccines safe since that time.

Some people are saying that COVID only threatens a small portion of our population. They may even claim that the published figures on hospitalizations and deaths are over-reported for various nefarious reasons. Contrast this claim with the fact that the nation experienced over 400K excess deaths in 2020 and almost 500k excess deaths in 2021.[ii] In addition, the average life expectancy for Americans has fallen by 2.2 years since the pandemic began.[iii] If COVID didn’t cause this, what did?

No, the vaccine isn’t perfect. People are still getting breakthrough cases, especially since the highly contagious Omicron variant has become dominant. There is a stark difference, however, in the outcomes for those who are vaccinated vs those who are not. The unvaccinated are dying at a rate that is 20 times that of the unvaccinated. Many of the unvaccinated who are dying are younger than those lost in previous waves. The vaccinated people who also die are generally the elderly and those with compromised immune systems. [iv]

Like the people in the above anecdote that believed Bazooka Bubble Gum would save them from cancer, there are certain groups of people in the US who downplay their COVID risks or seek unconventional ways to protect themselves. The young simply think that it is not their problem. (OK, I’ll admit it. I stay away from young people who might not be vaccinated.) I would hope that we could somehow convince them that this is bad for the health of our society. Do they really want to kill Grandma?

The other group that seems most likely to avoid vaccines and other protective measures are the highly politicized. The disease is a hoax, the vaccine doesn’t work, just take some horse de-wormer they are told every night on television. Many of these people are elderly themselves making them more vulnerable to bad outcomes from the disease. A shocking number of pundits and celebrities bombarding them with this information have actually died of COVID.[v] Viewers of shows featuring COVID disinformation are now much more likely to have a bad outcome if they catch the disease.[vi] It didn’t have to be this way. May they rest in peace.

I would hope that America, which has suffered dearly in the pandemic, will stay vigilant and safe. It is no fun to see a loved one die or get long COVID. My family has lost 3 members to the disease. I hope yours fares better.

LDT Apr 9, ‘22

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[i] Selected Adverse Events Reported after COVID-19 Vaccination | CDC

[ii] Excess Deaths (Absolute) – US Mortality Monitoring

[iii] Average U.S. life expectancy drops in 2021 for second year in a row (msn.com)

[iv] Who is dying of COVID amid omicron surge and widespread vaccine availability? – ABC News

[v] Famous Anti-Vaxxers Who Have Died From COVID-19 | NewsOne

[vi] Red America is now dying from COVID-19 at a clearly higher rate than blue America (yahoo.com)

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